Safe as Houses: Why Global Uncertainty Is Driving Wealth Back to London

After more than four decades in this business, I've learned to read markets not just through data, but through conversations. And the conversations I'm having right now are different to anything I've experienced before. There are wars everywhere. The world is an unstable place, and that instability is beginning to reshape where people choose to live.

What has happened over recent years is an exodus of non-doms, mainly into the Gulf, where their tax position felt safer and they could ring-fence their money. But what have they noticed? The Middle East might be safe for money, for paper, but it's not safe for human beings. We have received calls directly, at all levels of the market, people coming back to England. Perhaps money isn't the operative issue anymore. Maybe safety is the core issue. And London, with its legal certainty, its schools, its institutional permanence, offers something that no amount of fiscal engineering can replicate.

There is a two-tier reality that people must understand. The part of the market that is suffering is the core and less-than-core. It is not the top end. Ready-to-move-into prime assets (where you can bring your antiques and your paintings) are the ones selling quickest and best. When you get to the very top, you have to understand the psychology of who is buying. Today you are talking about billions. What difference does it make to a buyer worth billions whether they pays £200 million or £235 million, it is a small consideration compared to their worth. I was showing a client a property recently and said, "My instructions are to buy this house at the best possible price." He replied: "No. Your instructions are not to lose the house for me." The question at this level is never affordability. It is availability.

Residential development is a very difficult business now and experienced people know it. You buy a house for £20 million, you pay three and a half to four million in stamp duty, and the best will in the world to bring it to the top standard costs another fifteen million. All of a sudden your £20 million house has cost you £40 million before you even start. The art, as I have always believed, is in the buying. Nobody should forget that.

To sellers: do not self-value your own property. The market will tell you what your house is worth. Listen to it.

To buyers: be pragmatic, stop overanalysing, and if you find the right thing, don't lose it. What you lose on the roundabout, you gain on the swings.

The conversation has changed. It is no longer solely about tax. It is about where people really want to live. And for many of the world's most discerning families, the answer remains London.