Seven Budgets, Six Prime Ministers, Eleven Years of Prime Central London Property Data.

Each year, the London market holds its breath as the wait for the new Autumn Budget causes a stir. In the lead up to last week's Budget, we analysed every £5 million-plus sale in Prime Central London in the weeks around the Budget, dating back to 2015, in order to establish which governments positively impacted the market, which ones paused it, and what the data suggests for the year ahead.

How we measured it

We have examined every house and apartment sale above £5 million, and separately above £10 million, across Prime Central London in the four months before and the four months after the Autumn Budgets of 2015, 2017 and each year from 2021 to 2025.

Using these windows, the Budget’s effect on buyer behaviour is isolated and is more easily readable than annual figures, as they absorb everything from interest rate moves to global events. Our analysis spans six Prime Ministers and the pattern it reveals is consistent: buyers absorb higher taxes far more readily than they absorb uncertainty.

2015 | Cameron and Osborne: a race to beat the 3% Stamp Duty surcharge

Having been elected that May, David Cameron and George Osborne presided over a strong post-Budget market, with sales increasing across both the prime and super-prime sectors.

• £5 million-plus market: Sales rose 30% by value, from £951.7 million across 105 deals in the four months before the Budget to £1.24 billion across 114 deals in the four months after.
• £10 million-plus market: Sales increased 65% by value, from £425.5 million (25 deals) to £700 million (35 deals), including ten super-prime transactions in the immediate aftermath.

However, this surge had a specific cause - the Budget announced a 3% Stamp Duty surcharge on additional homes from 1 April 2016, prompting buyers to move quickly to complete before it took effect.

Despite the initial uplift, the longer-term impact was significant, and we have placed Osborne's Stamp Duty increases among the three most damaging Budget measures for London property in the past decade.

2017 | May and Hammond: uncertainty surrounding the government

Two years later, following the snap election in June, the picture was far more subdued, with a mixed response across the prime and super-prime markets.

• £5 million-plus market: Sales rose 15% by value, from £826.7 million (85 deals) to £948.5 million (97 deals), half the gain recorded under Cameron and Osborne.
• £10 million-plus market: Deal numbers fell 10%, from 29 to 26, while values rose just 2%, from £469.1 million to £477 million.

This was likely due to a loss of confidence in the government, particularly among international investors. Buyers at the prime and super-prime level value political stability, and the uncertainty surrounding the government appears to have weighed on activity.

2021 | Johnson and Sunak: a move forward in a positive direction

In 2021, confidence had returned with Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. Johnson's years as Mayor of London had given him a close understanding of the capital's economy and property market, and buyers responded positively.

• £5 million-plus market: Sales rose 26% by value, from £1.32 billion to £1.66 billion.
• £10 million-plus market: Sales increased from 42 deals to 47 deals, alongside a reported 32% rise in market activity.

Of all the Budgets we analysed, this was the only one that lifted both price bands without buyers rushing to beat a tax deadline.

2022 | Truss and Kwarteng: the market moved in two directions

The September Mini-Budget sent the market into a sharp decline following the announcement of unfunded tax changes. However, the impact differed considerably between the prime and super-prime sectors.

• £5 million-plus market: Deal numbers fell 24%, from 177 to 135, with apartments hit hardest, declining 36%, compared with a 22% fall for houses.
• £10 million-plus market: Sales rose 40% by value, from £738.4 million to £1.03 billion.

We saw established centi-millionaires and billionaires use the turmoil as a moment to leave London, while a younger generation of ultra-wealthy buyers, broadly aged from their mid-twenties to early forties, stepped in to purchase properties at prices that had fallen 19% between 2014 and 2022.

2023 | Sunak and Hunt: a sense of calm amongst the decline

The 2023 Autumn Budget brought a moment of calm to the market, although this stability did not translate into renewed growth. Sales values declined across both price bands.

• £5 million-plus market: Sales fell 5% by value, from £1.46 billion to £1.39 billion.
• £10 million-plus market: Sales fell 12% by value, from £805.6 million to £706 million.

2024 | Starmer and Reeves: the effect of a previous policy

Keir Starmer's first Budget coincided with significant falls in transaction numbers across both the prime and super-prime markets.

• £5 million-plus market: Deal numbers fell 16%, from 148 to 124, while sales value eased from £1.42 billion to £1.4 billion.
• £10 million-plus market: Deal numbers fell 25%, from 51 to 38.

This decline was likely caused by the previous government. Jeremy Hunt's announcement of the abolition of the non-dom regime in the Spring Budget had already weakened confidence across the ultra-prime market and prompted many non-dom residents to leave London.

2025 | Starmer and Reeves continued: a market moving at two speeds

In the months surrounding the Autumn Budget, the prime market remained slow, with fewer transactions despite an increase in total sales value. The super-prime market, however, told a different story.

• £5 million-plus market: Sales rose 14% by value, from £1.1 billion to £1.26 billion, although deal numbers fell 17%, from 116 to 96.
• £10 million-plus market: Sales rose 68% by value, from £496 million to £833 million.

With prices more than 24% below their 2014 peak, global wealth increasingly regards London as exceptional value. Buyers taking a long-term view, rather than responding to individual Budget cycles, have acted on this opportunity.

What the 2026 Autumn Budget means for prime London

Although headline taxes on property stayed where they were, and the risk buyers feared most did not materialise, for Jeremy Gee, that is the problem.

"For the prime London market, this was a Budget notable mainly for what it did not include. There was nothing on Stamp Duty, which remains the single biggest reason transactions at the top end are down.

"The one measure that might affect our clients is the further two-point rise in tax on rental income from April 2027, on top of the increase announced last year. That might push more landlords to sell, adding to stock when there is already too much for sale, and putting pressure on rents to increase as fewer properties are available to let. Although John Healey did not give the market any unforeseen shocks, he has missed a real opportunity to bring confidence and activity back to the market." - Jeremy Gee, Managing Director, Beauchamp Estates

Despite the political weather, correctly priced homes continue to sell, and our clients benefit from access to homes that never reach the open market. If you are considering a purchase or sale in Prime Central London, our team will be more than happy to discuss pricing and the opportunities available now. Contact us via email or Whatsapp today.