Prime Central London End of Year Lettings Survey for 2024

The Prime Central London rental market proved more resilient through 2024 than most forecasts had allowed for. Tenants committed more money than they had the year before and took on larger homes, but where their tax position remained unresolved they chose three or six months over three years. Our annual Lettings Survey sets out where that money went, which postcodes gained ground on their neighbours, and what we expect to see next.

The headline numbers

• £379.45 million in long-let transactions, up 4.7% from £362.25 million in 2023
• 3,815 rental deals agreed, up from 3,652
• 60% of total market value came from apartments, down from 63%
• 2,587 sq ft average size of a short-let house, up from 2,140 sq ft
• £2,739 per week average rent for a short-let house, a rise of nearly 34%

We analysed the 3,815 rental deals agreed across Prime Central London during 2024, covering houses and apartments let at anywhere between £850 and £45,000 per week. The dataset combines LonRes transaction records with our own lettings ledger and the intelligence our teams gather across the offices, which counts for most at the top of the market, where a meaningful share of the largest deals never reaches a portal. Reading the figures year on year shows where the capital's strongest postcodes stand and which direction they are travelling.

Where the demand sat

Bayswater, parts of Notting Hill, Knightsbridge, St John's Wood, Chelsea and Mayfair absorbed the bulk of the year's activity, with W2, SW7 and NW8 dominating between them. Each of the top three postcodes held the position it took in 2023, and W2 led again on 287 prime rental transactions, representing 7% of every deal agreed in the survey area and standing 6% ahead of its own 2023 figure. W1 and SW1X closed out the top ten.

Chelsea took share

SW3 posted the sharpest rise of any postcode in the survey, at 247 deals and 21% up on the year, and the movement behind it came from further west, where transactions in SW6 fell 18% over the same period. Tenants who would once have looked at Hammersmith, Fulham, Parsons Green or the outer edges of South Kensington are now paying a premium to sit inside Chelsea instead, and they are getting something for it. The King's Road, Sloane Square and the streets running off them keep adding boutiques, restaurants and galleries at a rate the surrounding postcodes have not matched, while the transport links remain the practical argument that closes the deal.

Chelsea took share

SW3 posted the sharpest rise of any postcode in the survey, at 247 deals and 21% up on the year, and the movement behind it came from further west, where transactions in SW6 fell 18% over the same period. Tenants who would once have looked at Hammersmith, Fulham, Parsons Green or the outer edges of South Kensington are now paying a premium to sit inside Chelsea instead, and they are getting something for it. The King's Road, Sloane Square and the streets running off them keep adding boutiques, restaurants and galleries at a rate the surrounding postcodes have not matched, while the transport links remain the practical argument that closes the deal.

Families moved north west

W8, NW8 and NW3 all placed among the strongest performers, for reasons that have little to do with fashion and a great deal to do with logistics. Tenants with children want schools they can walk to, square footage that Chelsea and Mayfair will not supply at the same money, and a garden belonging to the house rather than the square. St John's Wood and Hampstead answer all three while keeping the West End, the City and Canary Wharf within a manageable commute.

Houses gained on apartments

Apartments still account for the majority of market value, though their share slipped three points to 60% across the year and houses picked up the difference. Rents told a related story, with short-let apartments coming down 11% to £1,770 per week and long lets falling from £2,046 to £1,775. Our read is that the correction owes more to the volume of apartment stock reaching the market than to any weakening of tenant appetite for it.

Short lets grew, and got bigger

Every measure in the short-let market moved the same way, towards larger houses, higher weekly rents and harder competition at the top. We brokered the highest short let of the year: a contemporary five-bedroom house on Rede Place in Notting Hill, five storeys and more than 8,000 sq ft, let fully furnished at £45,000 per week. The interior-designed house carries several private outdoor spaces and a two-storey subterranean leisure wing containing a swimming pool, spa suite, cinema room and stocked bar. The equivalent deal a year earlier ran to £29,000 per week for a 14,566 sq ft eight-bedroom house on The Bishops Avenue in N2, a far larger building at two-thirds of the rent.

Uncertainty explains most of the shift. With the non-dom rules still awaiting clarification through 2024, a great many international ultra high net worth individuals declined to sign a long lease and took three to six months while they waited for the position to settle.

Americans, Western Europeans, Chinese, Indian and West African clients signed the majority of the short lets we agreed, and enquiries from Hong Kong and Korea rose markedly over the year. Clients from the Middle East, and from Dubai in particular, put staff accommodation near the top of the brief; one nanny per child is a common requirement, and it narrows the list of viable houses before anything else is discussed.

The ultra prime tier

Volumes above £10,000 per week fell across the year while pricing at that level did not. We recorded 37 deals over the threshold in 2024, 25 of them long lets and 12 short, against 51 the year before, and the homes that did trade commanded more than their equivalents had twelve months earlier. Three of ours show the range.

• Princes Gate, South Kensington - £20,000 per week, the highest short let achieved on a flat in 2024. A triplex with five ensuite bedrooms overlooking Hyde Park, a private indoor swimming pool, leisure suite and four private outdoor spaces.
• Twenty Grosvenor Square, Mayfair - £20,000 per week on a long let. A 5,750 sq ft three-bedroom apartment named 0.07 after Ian Fleming's spy, with access to the building's health club and Four Seasons hotel services.
• Brompton Square, SW3 - £22,000 per week. A nine-storey six-bedroom townhouse of nearly 6,000 sq ft, with four receptions, an indoor swimming pool, four private outdoor spaces and a housekeeper four days a week.

What we expect next

American demand should build further, and the stock that will absorb it sits in St John's Wood, Regent's Park and Hampstead, where tenants find private outside space, room for a family to spread out, and a short journey to The American School in London, London Business School and Regent's University. We also expect more tenants to rent before they buy, on the straightforward logic that twelve months in a postcode costs a great deal less than discovering you have bought in the wrong one.

For lettings advice, current listings and off-market opportunities, call +44 (0)20 7722 9793 or click here.